Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo has warned that rising fertiliser and fuel costs linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could place significant pressure on South Africa’s farming sector and eventually drive up food prices.
According to Sihlobo, the conflict has disrupted key global supply routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 30% of global fertiliser supplies are transported. The disruption has already pushed up shipping costs.
He cautioned that if the war continues for an extended period, fertiliser prices could rise further, increasing production costs for farmers and ultimately affecting consumers.
South Africa relies heavily on imported fertiliser, with roughly 80% of the country’s supply sourced from abroad. Fertiliser alone accounts for about 35% of production costs for grain farmers.
Sihlobo also pointed to the impact of rising fuel prices, which are expected to increase in April following higher Brent Crude Oil prices.
Fuel represents around 13% of grain farmers’ input costs, making it a significant expense for agricultural producers and businesses across the supply chain.
He noted that the impact extends beyond farmers, as the majority of grain transport in South Africa relies on road freight. As fuel prices increase, transport costs also rise, placing further pressure on food production and distribution.
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