US midterms put one of Trump’s majorities within Democrats’ reach
WASHINGTON — Democrats enter Tuesday’s US midterm elections favoured to win the House of Representatives, where a majority would give them the power to block legislation and investigate President Donald Trump’s administration during his final two years in office. The Senate is a harder contest. Democrats need to gain four seats there, and their route to a majority runs through states Trump carried in 2024.
All 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are on the ballot. Trump has encouraged supporters to vote as though his own name were on it, holding more than two dozen rallies since the start of October, mostly in states he won comfortably two years ago. Polling ahead of election day showed the cost of living was voters’ leading concern. Higher fuel prices following the US attack on Iran in February have brought the cost of the war into the campaign.
The Senate contest runs through Republican states
While the House majority turns on a few dozen competitive districts, Senate candidates must win statewide. Democrats face a close contest to retain their seat in Michigan, where their nominee, Abdul El-Sayed, faces former Republican congressman Mike Rogers. Even if Democrats hold Michigan and every other seat they are defending, they still need to win in at least two states Trump carried by double digits in 2024.
The two contests carry different consequences for the White House. A Democratic House could demand changes to spending bills in exchange for the votes Trump needs to fund the government. If Republicans retain the Senate, they would still control votes on his nominees. A Democratic Senate could also block a future Supreme Court appointment should a vacancy arise during the remainder of his term.
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