The UDM’s revival comes with a difficult choice over the ANC
JOHANNESBURG — The United Democratic Movement’s gains in Buffalo City have created an opportunity to influence a major municipality, but also a political test: whether it can help form a workable administration while respecting what its leaders describe as a vote against the ANC. With the ANC below an outright majority and the UDM emerging as the metro’s second-largest party, coalition choices could determine whether its breakthrough becomes lasting support.
The national figures show a recovery from a small base. At the 10:01 update on 7 November, using IEC data, recorded 111,619 proportional representation votes for the UDM, compared with 60,301 in 2021. That represents an increase of approximately 85%, with its share rising from about 0.51% to 0.77%. The latest count remained provisional, with 98.6% of voting districts reporting nationally. These figures compare PR ballots only, rather than combining different municipal ballot types.
That improvement is substantial for the party, although it does not establish a broad national resurgence. The more consequential development lies in where its support is concentrated. A party with less than 1% nationally can still become an important participant in a particular council, provided its seats are relevant to the combinations available for governing.
Buffalo City illustrates that possibility. UDM had secured approximately 18% of the vote under mayoral candidate Nqabayomzi Kwankwa, while the ANC had fallen to about 41%. The UDM’s position gives it a stronger negotiating platform, but neither second place nor a prominent mayoral candidate guarantees the mayoralty. That depends on final council representation and the support councillors can assemble.
The party’s leadership has interpreted the result as a demand for change. Bantu Holomisa told TimesLIVE that dissatisfied ANC voters had contributed to the UDM’s performance and credited community involvement in candidate selection. That is the party’s explanation of its gains; aggregate results alone cannot establish how individual voters switched allegiance. Nevertheless, the emphasis on locally supported candidates offers a practical lesson: a recognisable national leader can attract attention, but voters also assess the person asking to represent their ward.
Kwankwa has taken a firm position on coalition negotiations. Speaking to SABC News, he said preliminary discussions were taking place with other parties but ruled out an agreement with the ANC. That stance gives supporters clarity, while narrowing the UDM’s available routes into government. Its durability will depend on the final seat arithmetic and whether alternative partners can agree on an administration.
Rejecting an ANC partnership does not itself produce a stable alternative. The UDM would need to explain how any proposed coalition would agree on budgets, appointments and service priorities, and how disagreements would be resolved. If it remains in opposition, it would need to demonstrate that oversight and constituency work can deliver value without executive positions.
There is also unfinished electoral business. The party has complained to the IEC about recounts in Buffalo City wards, with Kwankwa alleging irregularities. Any assessment of affected results must leave room for the commission’s findings rather than treating the allegations as proven.
The UDM therefore has an opportunity to turn increased support into a stronger organisation. Its challenge is to retain voters after the immediate dissatisfaction that helped create that opening. A credible coalition agreement, or effective opposition where agreement proves impossible, would provide a firmer foundation for growth than a mayoral position secured without clear governing commitments.
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