Israel’s election could turn on the parties Netanyahu rejects
JERUSALEM — Arab parties could hold the balance of power in Israel’s election on 27 October, with polls suggesting neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s allies nor his opponents will secure a parliamentary majority. Their potential role puts cooperation between Jewish and Arab political parties at the centre of the contest, even as Netanyahu campaigns against such an arrangement.
Voters will elect the 120-member Knesset, with 61 seats needed for a majority. Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot and former prime minister Naftali Bennett are prominent challengers, but polling advantages will matter only if the opposition can assemble a government after the vote.
A divided electorate, a difficult coalition
A Channel 13 poll reported by The Jerusalem Post projected 54 seats for the opposition bloc and 50 for Netanyahu’s camp. The figures point to difficult negotiations rather than a clear transfer of power, although the final result could differ from polling estimates.
Eisenkot has left open the possibility of cooperation with Arab parties under conditions, while Netanyahu portrays that prospect as a security threat. For Arab political leaders, the election also presents an opportunity to demand action on violent crime and secure greater influence over government decisions.
Accountability after October 7
The election is the first parliamentary vote since the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023. Netanyahu faces criticism over the security failures and demands for an official inquiry, while supporters emphasise his experience and military record.
Military-service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men, judicial powers and rising living costs are also dividing voters. Eisenkot has pledged to end the exemptions, an issue sharpened by repeated reserve call-ups. However, neither major bloc supports establishing a Palestinian state, limiting expectations that a leadership change would transform policy towards Palestinians.
If coalition talks fail to produce a successor, Netanyahu could remain in office as caretaker. The election’s decisive outcome may therefore emerge around the negotiating table rather than on election night.
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