Eritrean President Warns Ethiopia Against Military Action Over Sea Access
Tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia have flared once again following remarks by Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki on 20 July 2025, cautioning Ethiopia against pursuing military options to secure seaport access.
The warning comes amid renewed assertions by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed advocating for sea access through Eritrean territory, an issue that has reignited longstanding disputes between the two nations.
The historical backdrop of their strained relationship includes a devastating war between 1998 and 2000, which resulted in tens of thousands of casualties.
Despite the 2018 peace agreement and the symbolic reconciliation that followed, relations remain fragile. President Afwerki has suggested that Ethiopia’s renewed maritime ambitions may serve as a distraction from growing domestic challenges.
Military Tensions Resurface Near Tigray
Concerns over regional stability are further compounded by the continued presence of Eritrean troops in northern Ethiopia, particularly in Tigray. This presence contravenes the terms of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which stipulated the withdrawal of all non-federal forces from the conflict-affected region.
While Eritrea has denied ongoing military involvement, dismissing reports as politically driven, observers and international monitors continue to document otherwise.
In March 2025, conflict escalated again when federal Ethiopian forces engaged in heavy clashes with the Fano militia in the Amhara region, resulting in significant casualties. Analysts argue that Eritrea gains a strategic edge from Ethiopia’s internal divisions, further complicating efforts to stabilise the region.
Allegations of Looting and Economic Exploitation
Recent findings by investigative organisations such as The Sentry point to significant economic exploitation by Eritrean forces during the Tigray conflict.
The June 2025 report outlines instances of looting involving factories, gold, and cultural artefacts, which were allegedly smuggled into Eritrea and channelled through state-controlled networks. These operations reportedly helped finance military logistics and sustain Eritrean troop activities in Ethiopia.
Although Eritrea was subject to a UN arms embargo between 2009 and 2018, its role in subsequent peace processes, including the one that led to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019, appeared to signal a shift. However, ongoing military involvement suggests unresolved tensions beneath the surface of formal diplomacy.
Diplomatic Efforts and Rising Political Pressures
Prime Minister Abiy has reaffirmed Ethiopia’s commitment to peace and the full implementation of the Pretoria Agreement. Nonetheless, the political climate in Ethiopia remains volatile, with the country gearing up for national elections in 2026.
Analysts warn that mounting pressure may incentivise the government to capitalise on external tensions to bolster domestic support.
Tigray’s interim leadership has called for restraint, refuting claims of provocation and pointing to the fragmented state of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) as a hindrance to comprehensive peace implementation.
Regional and international institutions, including the African Union, United Nations, and IGAD, continue to advocate for inclusive dialogue and diplomatic solutions.
With neighbouring countries such as Sudan and Somalia also facing crises, the Horn of Africa remains a hotspot for geopolitical instability. Observers stress that without coordinated efforts, the region risks sliding back into widespread conflict.