Another painful fuel increase is already building for October
JOHANNESBURG — South Africans could face another punishing fuel increase in October, with early data pointing to petrol approaching R29 a litre and some diesel prices moving beyond R32 if current international fuel market conditions persist.
Early Central Energy Fund data shows an under recovery of about R1.81 a litre for 93 octane petrol and R1.93 for 95 octane. Diesel is showing under recoveries of between R1.73 and R2.03 a litre, while illuminating paraffin is sitting at approximately R2.08.
If those conditions hold through September, October could deliver another substantial increase just weeks after motorists absorbed higher fuel prices at the beginning of this month.
The projections could push some petrol prices close to R29 a litre and diesel beyond R32, potentially breaking fuel price records reached earlier this year.
The numbers are not yet October’s confirmed fuel prices. South Africa’s monthly adjustment is determined by international petroleum product prices and the rand exchange rate over the full review period, meaning conditions can improve or deteriorate considerably before the final calculation.
The immediate problem is international fuel prices.
Brent crude ended last week above $96 a barrel as conflict involving the United States and Iran continued to place pressure on Middle Eastern energy supplies. The oil price has so far resisted remaining above $100, but refined petroleum markets remain under significant pressure.
That distinction matters because South Africa’s fuel price is influenced not only by crude oil but also by international prices for refined petrol and diesel. Tight supplies can therefore push domestic prices higher even without another dramatic increase in Brent.
Diesel presents an additional concern because higher prices extend well beyond private motorists. Freight companies, farmers, mines, construction businesses and other industries depend heavily on diesel, allowing large increases to eventually filter into transport and consumer prices.
South Africans therefore face another anxious wait through September. A stronger rand or retreat in international petroleum prices could reduce the projected increase, but if current conditions persist, October could bring another significant blow at the pumps.
Anyone with additional information can contact the press desk at press@townpress.co.za.