South African motorists could face a sharp increase in fuel prices at the start of April as rising global oil prices and a weakening rand place additional pressure on the cost of petrol and diesel.
The latest data from the Central Energy Fund suggests that fuel prices could see one of the largest monthly increases on record if current market trends continue. Early month projections indicate that petrol prices could rise by about R2.41 per litre, while diesel may increase by as much as R4.50 per litre for the 50ppm variant.
However, analysts warn that these estimates could climb even higher if international oil prices continue to surge and the rand remains under pressure.
Current data shows a significant under recovery in fuel pricing, with diesel sitting at around R7 per litre and petrol at approximately R3.78 per litre. If these trends persist, petrol prices could rise by more than R3 per litre, while diesel increases could exceed R5.
At present, the price of 95 Unleaded petrol stands at R19.47 per litre at the coast and R20.30 inland in Gauteng. The price of 93 Unleaded petrol is R20.19 per litre, while the wholesale price of diesel is R17.84 at coastal areas and R19.17 inland.
The recent surge in oil prices has largely been driven by escalating geopolitical tensions following military engagements involving the United States and Israel in Iran. The situation has raised concerns about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route through which about 20% of the world’s seaborne crude oil passes.
A weaker rand has further intensified the pressure on fuel prices. The currency has declined from an average of R16.31 against the US dollar in February to around R16.54 in recent weeks, reaching about R16.79 on Saturday.
Motorists are also expected to face higher fuel taxes from 1 April following adjustments announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana in the 2026 Budget Speech. The changes include increases to the General Fuel Levy, Carbon Levy and Road Accident Fund Levy, which will add a combined 21 cents per litre to the price of fuel.
Following these adjustments, motorists will pay a total of R4.10 per litre towards the General Fuel Levy and R2.25 per litre towards the Road Accident Fund.
Despite the concerning projections, fuel price forecasts remain preliminary and are based on early month data. The final adjustments will be confirmed at the end of March before taking effect in April.
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